Sunday August 01st 2010, 03:18AM
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MORTGAGE RATES: Best Lock/Float Advice MND Can Offer |
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch I think it's safe to say that, consistently for the last 30 to 45 days, at least one lender (regional, major, or independent) has offered below market "record low" mortgage rates. Investor demand is consistently healthy for agency MBS, such that their prices are hitting new record highs on a daily basis. No lender faces a shortage of funding, nothing seems to be able to distract mortgage rates from rallying! This situation has forced us to refocus our attention on the competitiveness of the primary mortgage market, instead of closely monitoring every move in the secondary mortgage market (MBS). Here's how I would play it.... The "best executed" lock/float strategy comes down to finding an originator who knows the loan market, studies underwriting guidelines, and...(read more)
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USDA Rural Housing Bill Passes; Low-Income Rental Legislation Advances |
Posted To: MND NewsWire One government housing program that had run out of funds months ago was revived by Congress yesterday, and another bill targeted at low-income rental housing moved a step closer to approval. The Senate yesterday passed HR 4899 to reestablish the popular U.S. Department of Agriculture Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program (Section 502 Housing) as a self-sustaining program. Also, the House Financial Services Committee approved H.R.4868 , the Housing Preservation and Tenant Protection Act of 2010 which aims to stem the loss of affordable rental housing units and prevent the displacement of low-income tenants. The Rural Housing program had run through its $13.1 billion funding by early this year and many buyers hoping to finance home purchases using Homebuyer Tax Credits were unable to...(read more)
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MBS Lower and Wider. Reprices Reported. Buyers Lurking |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Rate sheet influential mortgage-backs are experiencing some localized weakness as stocks rally and swaps spreads widen. Nominally, yield spreads have been wider all morning but price levels were still pushing new records because Treasuries were catching a bid, but the poo hit the fan a few minutes ago and prices plummeted. We're still in the green though...just off the session highs. The September FNCL 4.0 is +0-03 at 101+30. The FNCL 4.5 is UNCH at 104-02. The secondary market current coupon is -1.6bps at 3.679. Yield spreads are at the wides of the week. After much rallying, agency MBS appear exhausted, but I doubt this will last long. Buyers have consistently jumped on any sign of weakness...unfortunately I've already seen a few reprices for the worse....(read more)
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Evolving Loan Officer Agreements: Mandatory Reserves and Good File Delivery |
Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report After visiting over 100 shops in the past 3 years, we haven't really seen anything “new under the sun” in terms of loan officer agreements. Sometimes I think all contractual documents used by mortgage bankers originated from the same source. But more recently we've come across a few approaches that might eventually be considered the basis for new loan officer agreement practices. I’m not necessarily promoting these ideas, but they are worth discussing. The two additions are: (1) Mandatory reserves for future losses as a result of repurchase loan issues or early pay offs and (2) Good File Delivery Standards and Criteria when submitting loans to processing. Let’s dig a little deeper into these additions... Mandatory Reserves : Most agreements have clauses that...(read more)
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Rapid Refinance Program: Don't Bet On It |
Posted To: Pipeline Press The economy is so bad, I bought a toaster oven and my free gift with purchase was a bank...If the bank returns your check marked "Insufficient Funds," you call them and ask if they meant you or them...Angelina Jolie adopted a child from America...My cousin had an exorcism but couldn't afford to pay for it, and they re-possessed her..When Bill and Hillary travel together, they now have to share a room. The economy is indeed slow, generally speaking. So slow that conjecture is being openly discussed regarding yet another massive government-sponsored refinance/modification plan . I ignored them for a day or two, but figured I'd mention it anyway. Morgan Stanley put out a research piece suggesting a "change" to mortgage refinancing requirements: "The Fed and market...(read more)
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The Day Ahead: Q2 GDP, Consumer Sentiment, Stocks Testing Support |
Posted To: MBS Commentary A busy day awaits the markets as investors get their first look at second-quarter GDP. Also in the store is the influential Chicago Business Barometer which gives an update on how the economy is recovering in the midwest, plus a consumer sentiment index for the nation at large. While investors wait for the GDP report, headlines are focusing on an IMF report which said the U.S. financial system may need $76 billion in fresh capital to recover. “The findings, released today as part of a broader IMF report on the U.S. financial system, suggested that while the nation’s banking system is stable, it remains vulnerable,” reports Bloomberg News. “Home prices, commercial real estate loans and economic growth have the potential to cause shocks that could expose banks to more...(read more)
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Treasury Auctions Done. Bonds Cautiously Resilient as Stocks Repeat History |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Treasury just sold $29 billion 7s to a group of uninterested buyers... Auction demand as measured by the bid to cover ratio was below average. 2.78 bids were submitted for every 1 accepted by Treasury. Compare that to the ten auction average of 2.81 and the five auction average of 2.86. 25.6% of the issue was awarded at the high yield of 2.394%. This was 2.1bps above the 1pm "when issued" bid, a sign that buyers were looking to pay a little less than they did. Primary dealers took down a much greater award than usual, which explains why the high yield tailed. 48.8% of the issue and 25.1% of what they bid on. Both metrics are above average. This is not indicative of strong buyside demand. Directs were awarded 8.9% of the competitive bid. That makes them 0 for 3 this week. Indirects...(read more)
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Fannie Mae Preps Investors for Reform. Book of Business Reflects Tight Credit Conditions |
Posted To: MND NewsWire In the wake of the passage of Wall Street Reform, which many opponents have criticized Capitol Hill for failing to deal with the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Obama Administration is beginning to present the broad outlines of how the future of the GSEs will be determined. In a letter released Tuesday , David H. Stevens, acting commisioner of the FHA, said that the question of reforming the GSEs is "not if, but when." The Obama administration, he said, has made it clear from the beginning that the current structure of the government's role in the housing finance market is unsustainable and unacceptable, but winding down Freddie and Fannie abruptly would destabilize an already fragile housing industry and put the loans already on the books of these institutions at even...(read more)
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Are HECM Regulators Acting Unethically Toward the Reverse Mortgage Program? |
Posted To: Community Commentary I recently spoke on two interesting panels at the American Conference Institute’s two day symposium on Reverse Mortgages. The conference was held at the famed Helmsley Park Lane Hotel in the heart of Manhattan. The conference attracted a virtual who’s who in the mortgage and reverse mortgage industry. The speakers and the attendees formed an eclectic group which ranged from major law firms, title companies, quality control experts, compliance examiners, HECM counseling experts and state and federal regulators and various enforcement agencies. There was a genuine desire to understand the program so that enacted policy could be effective. On the first day of speaking, I was joined by Dave Adkins, OTS, Matthew Yoon, Esq. and Arthur Axelson, Esq. I pointed out that HERA could prevent...(read more)
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Final Ruling Issued on SAFE Act; Underwriting Guideline Overlays, Adverse Market Fees and Steep LLPAs; CMBS Sales; California State of Emergency; |
Posted To: Pipeline Press On a non-mortgage note, my son asked me, "At what age is it ok to tell a highway that it is adopted? At some point the highway will realize that it doesn't look like the Kiwanis's Club." I would have told him to "keep his day job", except he doesn't have one as he prepares for college. Lots of folks don't have jobs, as re-emphasized by this morning's Initial Jobless Claims number. One industry veteran told me, "The weekly number is just catnip for those who think the economy is limping along," and this morning's numbers came in down 11,000 to 457,000, but continuing claims climbed. Employment is still a huge issue for the economy, but the unemployment situation is certainly helping to keep rates low. We are not done with implementing the...(read more)
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Vacancy Rate Near Historic High. America Has a "Home Problem" |
Posted To: MND NewsWire As we have pointed out over the last few weeks , America has a homelessness problem; over a million individuals and families are temporarily or chronically homeless. While the statistics don't fully address this aspect, there is at least anecdotal indication that some of these people are in shelters or on the street because their own home or one they were renting was foreclosed. There is also purely anecdotal information that a lot more homeowners are hanging on by their fingernails; savings and unemployment exhausted, legal remedies gone, as lenders churn through a backlog of pending foreclosures and subsequent evictions. In other words, the problem could well get worse. It is also clear that the country is deep into what we are going to abuse poetic license to call a "home problem...(read more)
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The Day Ahead: Moody's Questions U.S. Credit Rating. Bonds Shrug Off News |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Equity futures are trading higher this morning despite word from Moody’s that it would have to question America’s triple-A credit rating unless it provides a credible plan to tackle its growing deficit. Steve Hess , a top sovereign debt analyst at Moody’s, said the U.S. appears to have “no plan” to reduce the deficit. “Can the United States do it is the big question right now and we are not sure either way,” he told Dow Jones Newswires. “We will wait and see what happens in the next couple of years on this front.” Meanwhile, economic confidence in Europe rose for a second straight month to its highest level in more than two years. The July index rose 1.3 points to 101.3. Economists at BMO said the populace may be “heartened by the...(read more)
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Can Mortgage Rates Go Any Lower? |
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch Well, here we are on "hump day" and mortgage rates are still detached from the price fluctuations of the secondary mortgage market. Instead, the ups and downs of consumer borrowing costs continue to be driven primarily by the capacity constraints of major lenders, the market makers for mortgage rates. One misconception is record low mortgage rates have drawn out a hoard of "fence sitting" borrowers who are bustling with excitement to refinance. Yes, media coverage of record low mortgage rates has attracted attention from some homeowners, but the crowds just don't compare to the mini-frenzy we witnessed in early 2009. This tells us the capacity constraints of major lenders are not totally due to an increase in loan applications. With the larger lenders allocating newly...(read more)
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Is There Life After the Mortgage Business? |
Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report We all know the mortgage business can be extremely profitable at times. We also know it can be disastrous at other times. Regulators and law makers have created an environment that makes us feel like a pin ball, bouncing aimlessly from one bumper to another Regardless of all these issues, most mortgage lending professionals stay in the business too long and never retire. I recently had the opportunity to talk to an “old timer”. He is in his mid-70s and still looking for an opportunity to manage/operate a company again. While his previous companies were well run and profitable, I was perplexed as to why he wished to do it all over again at the age of 75, especially in this environment. I had the opportunity to chat with a younger mortgage banker who had already sold a company, made...(read more)
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FHA Ready to Reduce Seller Concessions. HUD Invites Industry Comment Before Implementation |
Posted To: MND NewsWire HUD is preparing to implement a few new policies that will no doubt affect your pipeline/loan application process. Last week, HUD and the FHA invited public comment on three of those policy changes, which are part of FHA's strategy to "strengthen their capital reserves". The proposed changes which are either tweaks to other recent revisions or have been telegraphed by FHA and HUD in earlier Congressional testimony, notices to lenders, or press releases will: Update the combination of credit and down payment requirements for new borrowers Reduce allowable seller concessions from six to three percent. Tighten underwriting standards for manually underwritten loans FHA has been scrambling to strengthen its financial situation since an audit late in 2009 showed that the capital ratio...(read more)
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Beige Book: Mixed Reads on Economy. Housing Market Definitely "Sluggish" |
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Federal Reserve has released the Beige Book The Beige Book is a compilation of anecdotal information and data on current economic conditions across the country. The findings are NOT THE VIEWS OF FEDERAL RESERVE OFFICIALS ...instead, each Federal Reserve bank interviews key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources in their specific district. This report is published eight times a year. They call it the Beige Book because its Beige . This edition was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis and is based on information collected on or before July 19, 2010. Below is a summary of the findings and a few excerpts on bank lending and housing. I called attention to some of the more important observations. Economic activity has continued to increase, on balance, since...(read more)
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MBS Prices Hit New Record High After 5-Year Note Auction |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Mortgages are on a serious run... Front-month TBA levels set yet another new record high this morning and yield spreads continued to tighten vs. benchmarks (thx swaps!). While the street more than likely sees the current coupon in the +55/10s range, my weighting on the 4.0 has the current coupon closer to +68/10s. No matter how you slice it, mortgage valuations are rich, and everyone still wants to own agency MBS cash flows. READ WHY . It looked like we might see some directional movement yesterday, but that was a false alarm vols quickly deflated. After a few rounds of profit taking in the mid-morning hours, buyers quickly re-flooded the market, looking to take advantage of the slightest bit of weakness. In terms of origination flows, 4.50 coupons are still the most active 30yr paper. That...(read more)
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Home Builder Rankings; Updates from HUD and Fannie Mae; Home Ownership Stats; FHA Sanctions; |
Posted To: Pipeline Press Let me start off by saying that I do not believe the rumor that the International Olympic Committee has taken back skier Lindsey Vonn's gold medal, and instead awarded it to President Barack Obama, announcing that no one has ever gone downhill faster than he has. While we're talking about going downhill, here's one list on which you do not want to your name on.... The Federal Housing Administration's Mortgagee Review Board (MRB) announced dozens of administrative actions against FHA-approved lenders who failed to meet its requirements. This year alone, the MRB took nearly 1,500 administrative sanctions against lenders, including reprimands, probations, suspensions, withdrawals of approval, and civil money penalties. READ MORE On the positive side, the folks at HUD are presenting...(read more)
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Refinance Demand Takes a Break While Purchase Apps Search for Bottom |
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 23, 2010. The MBA's loan application survey covers over 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a snapshot view of consumer demand for mortgage loans. In a low mortgage rate environment, a trend of increasing refinance applications implies consumers are seeking out a lower monthly payment. If consumers are able to reduce their monthly mortgage payment and increase disposable income through refinancing, it can be a positive for the economy as a whole (creates more consumer spending or allows debtors to pay down personal liabilities like credit cards). A falling trend of purchase...(read more)
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The Day Ahead: Durable Goods, Beige Book, 5-Year Notes |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Equity futures are flat this morning ahead of the durable goods report for June and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a summary of regional economies across the country. Ninety minutes before the opening bell, Dow futures are trading 1 point higher at 10,495 and S&P 500 futures are up 0.25 points to 1111.25. The 2-year Treasury note is UNCH at 99-31 yielding 0.645%. The benchmark 10-year note is +0-04 at 103-29 yielding 3.036%. The 2s/10s curve is 2bps flatter at 239bps. The September Delivery FNCL 4.0 is +0-03 at 101-15. The FNCL 4.5 is +0-03 at 103-25. The secondary market current coupon is 1.2bps lower at 3.747%. Yield spreads are wider to start the session. Key Events Today: 7:00 ? The just-released weekly Mortgage Applications Index , a measure of mortgage loan application volume...(read more)
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Mortgage Rates Still Immune to Rising Benchmark Yields |
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch A much better than expected read on New Home Sales helped the stock market post strong gains yesterday. Typically, when stocks advance, their gains come at the expense of interest rates. While benchmark Treasury yields have risen over the last week, mortgage-backed securities have managed to retain their “flight to safety” bid. MBS prices are holding steady near record highs and mortgage rates are holding steady near record lows. A "flight to safety" occurs when investors are nervous about owning risky assets like stocks but do not want to miss out on earning returns on their funds, so they move their money into risk-free U.S Treasury debt and agency MBS to provide a safe-haven AND an investment return. To remind readers, as benchmark Treasury yields fall, prices of mortgage...(read more)
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Dealers Prop 2-Year Auction Demand. Assessing Lender Reprice Potential |
Posted To: MBS Commentary The Treasury just auctioned $38 billion 2-year notes . This auction amount is $2 billion less than the previous auction, $4 billion less than the May auction, and $6 billion less than the record $44 billion auction in April. The bid to cover ratio, a measure of auction demand, was 3.33 bids submitted for every one accepted by Treasury. This is above average but lower than the 2-year note auction in June. 88% of the issue was taken down at a high yield of 0.665%. While this is a new record low for the "high yield" at a 2-year note auction, it was still almost 1 basis point higher than the 1pm "When Issued" yield. Indicating buyside demand was lacking. Both direct and indirect bidders were awarded below average takedown percentages. Directs took 13.5% of the issue, below both...(read more)
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FHA Penalizes Over 1,000 Lenders for Violating Regulatory Standards |
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Federal Housing Administration's Mortgagee Review Board (MRB) has revealed a list of over one thousand lenders against whom it has taken action over the last several months for violations of the agency's program requirements. Infractions ranged from failing to notify the Department of Housing and Urban Development of changes in license status or office closures, improperly displaying FHA seals on company websites or advertising materials, and using non-employees to process loans, to failing to properly process or document credit, employment and appraisal information. The actions taken by the Board included permanent withdrawal of FHA lending authority, suspensions, and fines ranging into the high six digits. "Lenders should know by now that FHA will not tolerate fraudulent...(read more)
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Buyback Risk Locks Some Borrowers Out of Refi Market; Jawboning on Fannie and Freddie; Anecdotes from the Trenches; |
Posted To: Pipeline Press One patient came in and said, "Doctor, I have a serious memory problem." The doctor asked, "When did it start?" The man replied, "When did what start?" That line is short and to the point. Generally speaking, markets like news when it is short and to the point - borrowers are different than traders, who are different than investors, who are different than analysts, who are different than economists. So when the Fed Chairman uses the double adjective "unusually uncertain" to describe the economic outlook, one's opinion, and how one reacts to that quote from last week's testimony, will be different. There is no question that rates are great, and much better than many had forecast for this time of year. But if the Federal Reserve doesn't know...(read more)
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Housing Finance Reform Now in Focus for Obama Administration |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Much to the surprise of many pundits, the recently signed Financial Reform Bill did not outline guidelines for regulators to begin crafting the future of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Although this was viewed as an oversight by most, it was the right move because it will allow our political and financial leadership to focus on FIXING THE BROKEN HOUSING FINANCE SYSTEM In April, Treasury outlined their "Housing Finance Reform" objectives . The administration's proposals will be designed to achieve four objectives. Mortgage credit should be available and distributed on an efficient basis to a wide range of borrowers. A well-functioning housing market should provide affordable housing options, both ownership and rental, for low and moderate-income households. Consumers...(read more)
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